Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 16.080017 19.489260 23.258055 27.708174 32.793059 38.395963 45.009560
2025-11-23 10.699117 14.981893 20.232157 27.031120 35.484582 45.529269 58.237387
2025-11-30 8.281383 12.993151 19.244379 27.902629 39.320908 53.592885 72.479736
2025-12-07 6.276399 10.966817 17.660240 27.500662 41.150050 58.945279 83.371174
2025-12-14 5.022264 9.681870 16.777373 27.758180 43.645837 65.083813 95.382326
2025-12-21 3.740175 8.033610 15.043185 26.484450 43.759298 67.874969 102.938975
2025-12-28 3.138264 7.376614 14.699819 27.166210 46.617289 74.477458 115.850601
2026-01-04 2.597668 6.695836 14.189966 27.480458 48.877202 80.271942 127.815554
2026-01-11 2.186659 6.163373 13.836814 27.969652 51.377174 86.468951 140.536700
2026-01-18 1.883975 5.780086 13.682422 28.744261 54.328657 93.415799 154.550766
2026-01-25 1.500999 5.107802 12.871919 28.272736 55.199699 97.224914 164.067549
2026-02-01 1.263554 4.716682 12.545573 28.610663 57.384984 103.090152 176.788870
2026-02-08 1.010968 4.225689 11.978138 28.525664 58.991753 108.353196 189.175348
2026-02-15 0.761769 3.645500 11.115503 27.783906 59.420727 111.798418 198.986976
2026-02-22 0.651491 3.450285 11.086920 28.671079 62.759892 120.041030 216.470098
2026-03-01 0.500054 3.040141 10.462860 28.260341 63.700385 124.369776 227.939845
2026-03-08 0.405046 2.788214 10.180395 28.523350 65.875253 130.804917 242.921021
2026-03-15 0.280757 2.326109 9.236254 27.222287 64.984083 131.999085 249.499453
2026-03-22 0.235210 2.197329 9.188129 27.918713 67.966453 139.910340 267.185722
2026-03-29 0.189065 2.029771 8.989896 28.239692 70.216410 146.618323 283.074848
2026-04-05 0.154419 1.898814 8.874359 28.739332 72.840510 154.061246 300.369026
2026-04-12 0.129985 1.811606 8.879885 29.530397 76.090896 162.712751 319.891812
2026-04-19 0.093760 1.594355 8.398570 29.048866 76.679649 166.607358 331.516404